Thursday, February 28, 2013
Rural Voters Make BN Win SIRA HABIBU sira@thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: Rural voters are likely to make the difference in the general election and deliver victory to Barisan Nasional, an anaylst said.
Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (Asli) chief executive officer Michael Yeoh said Barisan should win in Kedah and Perak, where the Malay swing back to Umno could help the party win back PKR and PAS state seats in Perak.
“Pakatan should retain Kelantan and Penang, but would face a strong challenge from Barisan,” he said.
There is a slim chance of Barisan winning back Penang if Umno wins 17 seats and MCA and Gerakan deliver four more seats.
The fight for Selangor will be the toughest, with a 50-50 chance for either side.
MCA will face tough challenges in Gelang Patah, Kulai and Tanjung Piai in Johor and Lumut in Perak.
“On the other hand, MCA has a good chance of winning back Padang Serai, Gopeng and Selayang should there be a strong Malay and Indian swing back to BN,” Yeoh said in his 13th General Election forecast report. .
In Sarawak, Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud would deliver 100% of his PBB seats to Barisan, hence securing the majority of Sarawak seats.
“However, the PRS and SPDP may lose a couple of Dayak seats to PKR,” said Yeoh.
“The SUPP will come under a strong challenge from DAP and could lose all its Chinese majority seats to DAP.'' he said.
In Sabah, Umno should be able to do well, leading Barisan to regain control of the state government.
“However, DAP would win several more Chinese-majority seats in Sabah,” he added.
The Najib factor could, however, swing some Chinese votes in the elections.
“Some older Chinese and the Chinese business community might want to give Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak a chance as they value peace, stability and prosperity.
“Najib's proven track record in the transformation programmes and economic performance with the 6.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 stands him and the Barisan Nasional government in good stead,” Yeoh said.
He said Najib's popularity, personality, hard work and tenacity could win him support but urban Chinese still strongly supported DAP and most had made up their minds.
In a recent roundtable meeting and study on the main concerns of the Chinese community organised by Asli's Centre for Public Policy Studies, it was determined that the main issues of concern to the Chinese community were crime and corruption, education, cost of living, fairness and justice, cultural and religious issues, lack of civil service participation and lack of meritocracy.
“These have caused frustration among the Chinese voters.
“As high as 85% of urban Chinese may vote for DAP,” he said.
DAP would be the biggest winner in the Opposition front, as it stood a chance to win between 35 and 40 parliamentary seats compared with the 28 it won in 2008, he said.
Despite not getting strong Chinese support, Barisan Nasional would still emerge victorious in the next general election, said the survey.
“In the final analysis, the BN will win the 13th general election. The only uncertainty is the size of the majority,” he said.
There are three possible outcomes for the coming election status quo, reduced majority for Barisan, or Barisan regaining the two-thirds majority, said Yeoh.
“From our analysis, BN is expected to win between 123 and 135 seats. This is the most likely outcome.
“However, if the Malay and Indian swing back to BN is very strong and Najib is able to bring back more undecided Chinese, BN can win up to 150 seats, which will restore the coalition's two-thirds majority. This outcome will be a difficult challenge,” he said.
Of the 222 parliamentary seats, 150 are bumiputra seats, 30 are mixed and 42 Chinese-majority seats.
In the 2008 election, Barisan won 140 seats, and the Opposition coalition won 82 seats (PKR 31, DAP 28 and PAS 23).
In view of the stiff competition, the campaign could become dirty, with a lot of personal attacks and accusations thrown by both sides. Surprises can be revealed during the campaign.
A gaffe or a mistake can be very costly during the campaign period.
“Nevertheless, what can be certain is that the two big winners in the coming elections will be Umno and DAP,” he said.
He also said that it was also important to consider the possible composition of the post-GE13 government.
Among the possible realignments are Umno seeking an alliance with PAS or even DAP.
“Nothing is impossible. After all, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics,” he said.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
DAP can claim the moon and the sky but I will retain seat, says Riot By RINTOS MAIL rintos@thestar.com.my
KUCHING: Foreign Deputy Minister Datuk Richard Riot (pic) is optimistic about Barisan Nasional’s chances in Serian despite talk that DAP is gaining ground support there.
He said if he was renominated to defend the seat in the general election, Serian would still go to Barisan.
Riot, who is into his fifth term, said people could speculate anything they wanted but when the time came, Barisan would still win the seat.
“If given the chance, I’m confident I will win again with the help of other BN component parties – PBB, SPDP and PRS.
“However, I cannot afford to be over-confident or complacent. I will still have to campaign hard,” he told The Star yesterday.
Riot said election or no election, it was the same to him because he had been on the ground every weekend.
“Except that I will have to work a bit harder come election.”
On talk that the split in SUPP might affect his votes, Riot said there was no split in Serian SUPP.
He said there was only one SUPP team in Serian. “As far as SUPP in Serian is concerned, I am in full control.”
“The branch is in unison, we are united and the party’s machinery is all ready for the election,” he said.
Rumours are that Riot’s name is not the only one submitted to national BN chairman Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, which if true could only mean that Serian SUPP is divided over candidacy.
Such division could trickle down to polling day, local political observers said.
Serian coffeeshop talk seems to indicate a growing favour for a new face said to have been nominated by Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh’s camp.
On reports that DAP was gaining influence in Serian, Riot said DAP could claim the moon and the sky, but at the end of the day it was the voters who had the final say.
“I’m not overly concerned with what they are doing and their claims. I’m just concentrating on my work as an MP and will continue to serve the constituents as long as I’m still an MP.”
DAP challenge is being fronted by the party’s Serian chief Edward Luwak.
Edward, the younger brother of former MP Lainus Luwak, was a corporate figure before going into politics,
In the late 80s, Edward was private secretary to the late Datuk Michael Ben when the latter was assistant minister. Therefore, he is no stranger to Serian politics.
In fact, Edward is said to be the brains behind Ben’s brief affair with PBDS, and that when Ben leapfrogged into PBB, Edward resigned.
Observers of local politics say if Edward contests Serian, he will relish every moment of it because it will be his chance to take on Riot, the man once seen as the Bidayuh PBDS’ connection, but jumped ship to revive SUPP’s stranglehold over Serian.
“I don’t want to be too optimistic, but in Serian town I think I have a slight edge,” Edward said yesterday.
“First, there is a growing clamour for change... change to old policies, change to things that don’t seem to improve for the better around town, and change because there is a need to have new ideas.
“Second, a growing young generation of voters who see there is nothing for them in the old scheme of things.
“And third, go to the marketplace, meet the business community, talk to the hawkers and have a close look at the streets and roads, there are so many things wanting there but there appears to be a denial mode on the part of the authorities,” he said.
“Our society is becoming more knowledgeable by the day, you can’t remain in denial mode and expect the people to accept whatever there is.”
Asked how he saw his support in the villages, Edward said the denial mode there was even worse even as Bidayuhs were scrambling to defend their land rights.
“Land is dear to the people, and I want to seriously address the issue. Unfortunately, there are people who appear to be happy and celebrating every weekend, singing and dancing as if the problem does not exist.”
Asked how he rates his overall chances now, Edward said: “Mine is 40%. I am the underdog... the David, but that’s a good start because I see I will be adding on to that in the days ahead.”
From The Star
He said if he was renominated to defend the seat in the general election, Serian would still go to Barisan.
Riot, who is into his fifth term, said people could speculate anything they wanted but when the time came, Barisan would still win the seat.
“If given the chance, I’m confident I will win again with the help of other BN component parties – PBB, SPDP and PRS.
“However, I cannot afford to be over-confident or complacent. I will still have to campaign hard,” he told The Star yesterday.
Riot said election or no election, it was the same to him because he had been on the ground every weekend.
“Except that I will have to work a bit harder come election.”
On talk that the split in SUPP might affect his votes, Riot said there was no split in Serian SUPP.
He said there was only one SUPP team in Serian. “As far as SUPP in Serian is concerned, I am in full control.”
“The branch is in unison, we are united and the party’s machinery is all ready for the election,” he said.
Rumours are that Riot’s name is not the only one submitted to national BN chairman Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, which if true could only mean that Serian SUPP is divided over candidacy.
Such division could trickle down to polling day, local political observers said.
Serian coffeeshop talk seems to indicate a growing favour for a new face said to have been nominated by Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh’s camp.
On reports that DAP was gaining influence in Serian, Riot said DAP could claim the moon and the sky, but at the end of the day it was the voters who had the final say.
“I’m not overly concerned with what they are doing and their claims. I’m just concentrating on my work as an MP and will continue to serve the constituents as long as I’m still an MP.”
DAP challenge is being fronted by the party’s Serian chief Edward Luwak.
Edward, the younger brother of former MP Lainus Luwak, was a corporate figure before going into politics,
In the late 80s, Edward was private secretary to the late Datuk Michael Ben when the latter was assistant minister. Therefore, he is no stranger to Serian politics.
In fact, Edward is said to be the brains behind Ben’s brief affair with PBDS, and that when Ben leapfrogged into PBB, Edward resigned.
Observers of local politics say if Edward contests Serian, he will relish every moment of it because it will be his chance to take on Riot, the man once seen as the Bidayuh PBDS’ connection, but jumped ship to revive SUPP’s stranglehold over Serian.
“I don’t want to be too optimistic, but in Serian town I think I have a slight edge,” Edward said yesterday.
“First, there is a growing clamour for change... change to old policies, change to things that don’t seem to improve for the better around town, and change because there is a need to have new ideas.
“Second, a growing young generation of voters who see there is nothing for them in the old scheme of things.
“And third, go to the marketplace, meet the business community, talk to the hawkers and have a close look at the streets and roads, there are so many things wanting there but there appears to be a denial mode on the part of the authorities,” he said.
“Our society is becoming more knowledgeable by the day, you can’t remain in denial mode and expect the people to accept whatever there is.”
Asked how he saw his support in the villages, Edward said the denial mode there was even worse even as Bidayuhs were scrambling to defend their land rights.
“Land is dear to the people, and I want to seriously address the issue. Unfortunately, there are people who appear to be happy and celebrating every weekend, singing and dancing as if the problem does not exist.”
Asked how he rates his overall chances now, Edward said: “Mine is 40%. I am the underdog... the David, but that’s a good start because I see I will be adding on to that in the days ahead.”
From The Star
Friday, February 8, 2013
MP in Serian
KUCHING: The centre set up by Sarawak DAP in Serian has not only set in motion its determination to wrest the parliamentary seat from the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) in the coming general election but also caused ripples among the Bidayuh community as well as in the Barisan Nasional camp.
Weekly education programmes are organised by the party to instil political awareness among the Bidayuh community, so that they know their rights as voters as well as their rights and privileges to development, scholarships, business opportunities and so on.
With all these activities going on, Michael Manyin, the state assemblyman for Tebedu and state minister as well as Martin Ben, state assemblyman for Kedup, have expressed concern.
The two constituencies (Tebedu and Kedup) form the Serian parliamentary constituency.
Peter Minos, who is deputy information chief of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), accused DAP of being too “ambitious and greedy” in eyeing Bidayuh parliamentary seats.
“The urbanites may love DAP but not the Bidayuhs who still need many basic things like treated water, electricity and roads from the BN government,” he said.
Besides the Serian seat, DAP is also interested in contestesting other Bidayuh majority seats of Mambong and Mas Gading.
Five-term Serian MP Richard Riot, who is deputy minister of foreign affairs, is also feeling the heat coming from DAP that he has never missed any weekend to be with his constituents.
He has to counter and contain not only the increasing influence of DAP but also appease the growing discontentment of the community against his leadership.
His victory in the last election was mainly due to the strong support given by the Bidayuh community which comprises 23,540 voters. But now the community appears to be split, and this is his main concern.
And as far as the 3,200 Chinese voters in the constituency are concerned, their votes will go for DAP.
According to Riot, Prime Minster Najib Tun Razak knows how serious the problems affecting the community are, so he wants the former to defend the seat for a sixth term.
As in any Dayak area, native customary rights (NCR) land is a major issue.
The politicians however accused the villagers of being “anti-development” and claimed that they were instigated by the opposition.
But Riot’s supporters argued that the MP should not be blamed.
The coming election may see Riot facing one of his schoolmates, Edward Andrew Luak, a senior employee of Sarawak Shell.
“Although the response from the villagers is good, we still need to work harder,” he said.
Extract from FreeMalaysiatoday Joseph Tawi
Weekly education programmes are organised by the party to instil political awareness among the Bidayuh community, so that they know their rights as voters as well as their rights and privileges to development, scholarships, business opportunities and so on.
With all these activities going on, Michael Manyin, the state assemblyman for Tebedu and state minister as well as Martin Ben, state assemblyman for Kedup, have expressed concern.
The two constituencies (Tebedu and Kedup) form the Serian parliamentary constituency.
Peter Minos, who is deputy information chief of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), accused DAP of being too “ambitious and greedy” in eyeing Bidayuh parliamentary seats.
“The urbanites may love DAP but not the Bidayuhs who still need many basic things like treated water, electricity and roads from the BN government,” he said.
Besides the Serian seat, DAP is also interested in contestesting other Bidayuh majority seats of Mambong and Mas Gading.
Five-term Serian MP Richard Riot, who is deputy minister of foreign affairs, is also feeling the heat coming from DAP that he has never missed any weekend to be with his constituents.
He has to counter and contain not only the increasing influence of DAP but also appease the growing discontentment of the community against his leadership.
His victory in the last election was mainly due to the strong support given by the Bidayuh community which comprises 23,540 voters. But now the community appears to be split, and this is his main concern.
And as far as the 3,200 Chinese voters in the constituency are concerned, their votes will go for DAP.
According to Riot, Prime Minster Najib Tun Razak knows how serious the problems affecting the community are, so he wants the former to defend the seat for a sixth term.
As in any Dayak area, native customary rights (NCR) land is a major issue.
The politicians however accused the villagers of being “anti-development” and claimed that they were instigated by the opposition.
But Riot’s supporters argued that the MP should not be blamed.
The coming election may see Riot facing one of his schoolmates, Edward Andrew Luak, a senior employee of Sarawak Shell.
“Although the response from the villagers is good, we still need to work harder,” he said.
Extract from FreeMalaysiatoday Joseph Tawi
Monday, February 4, 2013
Serian Sentral
Semasa saya balik ke kampung, saya berada kagum dengan pembangunan yang agak pesat di Bandar Serian.
Serian amat berpotensi untuk menjadi satu pusat komersial yang akan menarik minat para pelabor kerana lokasinya yang strategik. Ianya terletak menjadi laluan utama ke Pontianak dan Sri Aman.
Serian amat berpotensi untuk menjadi satu pusat komersial yang akan menarik minat para pelabor kerana lokasinya yang strategik. Ianya terletak menjadi laluan utama ke Pontianak dan Sri Aman.
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