Rural Voters Make BN Win SIRA HABIBU sira@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Rural voters are likely to make the difference in the general election and deliver victory to Barisan Nasional, an anaylst said.

Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (Asli) chief executive officer Michael Yeoh said Barisan should win in Kedah and Perak, where the Malay swing back to Umno could help the party win back PKR and PAS state seats in Perak.

“Pakatan should retain Kelantan and Penang, but would face a strong challenge from Barisan,” he said.

There is a slim chance of Barisan winning back Penang if Umno wins 17 seats and MCA and Gerakan deliver four more seats.

The fight for Selangor will be the toughest, with a 50-50 chance for either side.

MCA will face tough challenges in Gelang Patah, Kulai and Tanjung Piai in Johor and Lumut in Perak.

“On the other hand, MCA has a good chance of winning back Padang Serai, Gopeng and Selayang should there be a strong Malay and Indian swing back to BN,” Yeoh said in his 13th General Election forecast report. .

In Sarawak, Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud would deliver 100% of his PBB seats to Barisan, hence securing the majority of Sarawak seats.

“However, the PRS and SPDP may lose a couple of Dayak seats to PKR,” said Yeoh.

“The SUPP will come under a strong challenge from DAP and could lose all its Chinese majority seats to DAP.'' he said.

In Sabah, Umno should be able to do well, leading Barisan to regain control of the state government.

“However, DAP would win several more Chinese-majority seats in Sabah,” he added.

The Najib factor could, however, swing some Chinese votes in the elections.

“Some older Chinese and the Chinese business community might want to give Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak a chance as they value peace, stability and prosperity.

“Najib's proven track record in the transformation programmes and economic performance with the 6.4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 stands him and the Barisan Nasional government in good stead,” Yeoh said.

He said Najib's popularity, personality, hard work and tenacity could win him support but urban Chinese still strongly supported DAP and most had made up their minds.

In a recent roundtable meeting and study on the main concerns of the Chinese community organised by Asli's Centre for Public Policy Studies, it was determined that the main issues of concern to the Chinese community were crime and corruption, education, cost of living, fairness and justice, cultural and religious issues, lack of civil service participation and lack of meritocracy.

“These have caused frustration among the Chinese voters.

“As high as 85% of urban Chinese may vote for DAP,” he said.

DAP would be the biggest winner in the Opposition front, as it stood a chance to win between 35 and 40 parliamentary seats compared with the 28 it won in 2008, he said.

Despite not getting strong Chinese support, Barisan Nasional would still emerge victorious in the next general election, said the survey.

“In the final analysis, the BN will win the 13th general election. The only uncertainty is the size of the majority,” he said.

There are three possible outcomes for the coming election status quo, reduced majority for Barisan, or Barisan regaining the two-thirds majority, said Yeoh.

“From our analysis, BN is expected to win between 123 and 135 seats. This is the most likely outcome.

“However, if the Malay and Indian swing back to BN is very strong and Najib is able to bring back more undecided Chinese, BN can win up to 150 seats, which will restore the coalition's two-thirds majority. This outcome will be a difficult challenge,” he said.

Of the 222 parliamentary seats, 150 are bumiputra seats, 30 are mixed and 42 Chinese-majority seats.

In the 2008 election, Barisan won 140 seats, and the Opposition coalition won 82 seats (PKR 31, DAP 28 and PAS 23).

In view of the stiff competition, the campaign could become dirty, with a lot of personal attacks and accusations thrown by both sides. Surprises can be revealed during the campaign.

A gaffe or a mistake can be very costly during the campaign period.

“Nevertheless, what can be certain is that the two big winners in the coming elections will be Umno and DAP,” he said.

He also said that it was also important to consider the possible composition of the post-GE13 government.

Among the possible realignments are Umno seeking an alliance with PAS or even DAP.

“Nothing is impossible. After all, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics,” he said.